THE YEAR OF RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH AND
SUCCESSFUL TEST OF CURRENCY BOARD
Eesti Pank as the Central
Bank of the Republic of Estonia has to guarantee the domestic
and international confidence in the national currency, the
stability and integrity of the monetary system. This is
the mission slogan of Eesti Pank for Estonia and we pursue it
developing and implementing our activities.
The main objectives of Eesti
Pank have been and continuously are pursuant to our mission
the preservation of the value and integrity of the Estonian
kroon as a legal tender, promotion of the security and
stability of our banking system, support of the efficiency
and development of the financial system, first and foremost,
that of payment and settlement systems and meeting the cash
demand of the society.
Today we can admit that 1997
was a year of challenges both for Estonia's economy and the
Central Bank. Estonia's economy can be described by the
rapid economic growth exceeding 10%, decreasing inflation
contained within 11%, the improved fiscal position of the
government sector and continuing structural economic reforms.
Due to successful economic reforms, the results of which were
seen in 1997, Estonia was included in the first round of EU
accession negotiations.
Estonia's successful
economic development is also due to the monetary policy based
on the kroon's fixed exchange rate against the German mark
and the currency board arrangement chosen during the 1992
monetary reform. Five years after the reintroduction of the
Estonian kroon we are pleased to admit that the public
confidence in the kroon continues and the foundation for the
success of the fixed exchange rate policy and currency board
arrangement has strengthened.
The events of the autumn 1997
manifested that the structure of Estonia's monetary system
offers an adequate and efficient protection against
speculative attacks. The full coverage of the kroon with
foreign exchange reserves within the currency board
arrangement is a significant guarantee for the continuous
maintenance of the fixed exchange rate.
Analysing the year 1997, we
have to admit that for the first time signs of danger
appeared in Estonia's economy, mainly due to our extremely
rapid development. The fast growth of domestic demand
revealed itself in the increasing foreign trade deficit.
Regardless of the significant growth in exports, the external
imbalance of economy went up -- the current account deficit
increased up to 13% of the gross domestic product. In the
financial sector the loan markets continued expansive
development, with loan volume doubling.
Eesti Pank applied first
countermeasures in spring, informing early enough of measures
applicable in the second half of the year to strengthen the
financial sector. Unfortunately market participants responded
inadequately and, thus, it was necessary to apply additional
economic measures in order to reduce overexpansionist
economic development-related risks in financial and fiscal
systems and to curb the increasing domestic demand.
Following the adjustments
originating from the more stringent external environment over
the last few months of the year in the monetary policy
environment, the steps taken in the economic and monetary
policies by the Government of the Republic of Estonia and
Eesti Pank in November-December stabilized the situation and
sent an adequate signal to economic agents on Estonia's
objective in the economic policy.
A crucial political decision
to establish a Stabilization Reserve Fund was taken by the
Government of the Republic in late 1997. In order to avoid an
additional pressure to promote domestic demand, the resources
of the Stabilization Reserve Fund have been placed in
high-quality instruments in external markets. The main
objective of the Fund, capitalized over the next years by
supplementary fiscal revenue accompanying rapid economic
growth and privatization proceeds, is to ensure continuous
performance of state functions in case of contingency in
future.
Eesti Pank would rather
support indirect measures considering market mechanisms when
shaping economic policy, and adhering to open market
principles. Continuously analysing and evaluating economy we
would like to establish with our monetary policy a favourable
environment for the private sector for adequate
decision-making.
The economy cannot function
successfully without a reliable and well capitalized banking
system. Eesti Pank increased banks' capital adequacy
requirement from 8 to 10% in 1997. Only reliable banking
sector ensures a capability of the financial sector to resist
the changeability of the ever integrating international money
market of which Estonia has become an integral part as well.
In autumn Eesti Pank introduced additional measures to ensure
banks' liquidity in kroons and decrease their operational
risks. Strengthening of prudential ratios and implementation
of these consolidated principles will continue in 1998 as
well.
Eesti Pank complies with EU
standards in adjusting the legal framework of the financial
system. The new draft of Credit Institutions Act and a draft
of Saving and Loan Associations Act were completed in 1997.
Riigikogu (the Parliament) is currently processing the draft
of Deposit Insurance Fund Act. The regulation of the
legislative base is an important landmark for enhancing
public confidence in banks and excluding a potential danger
of a crisis in the banking system.
The increasing participation
of international investors among bank owners and the
expansion of the activity of banks and their subsidiaries in
external markets witnesses the increasing competitiveness of
Estonian commercial banks. In 1997, the rapid development of
banks and other financial intermediaries as well as the
capital market had a favourable impact on the internal
competition and performance efficiency in the financial
sector.
Any financial intermediation
would involve inevitable risks which can be minimised
although not ruled out by efficient supervision. Arranging
supervision of credit institutions Eesti Pank applies a
system based on equal opportunities and clear rules in which
inter-bank competition serves as a guarantee for the system
reliability and confidence.
Investment grades assigned to
Estonia by internationally recognised rating agencies in 1997
are a recognition of Estonia's liberal economic policy.
Ratings assigned to Estonia are among the highest in Central
and Eastern European countries. It is a sign of international
recognition of efficient performance of the founding
principles of Estonian economy as well as the continuing
economic reforms and prudent economic policy. At the same
time, the implementation of acts and decisions adopted is of
great importance. The high country rating obliges Estonia to
ensure the continuity and transparency of its economic and
monetary policy.
In 1998, Estonia has to make
decisions on several options in the economic policy requiring
public agreement. The adoption of pension reform acts,
privatization of infrastructure, continuous provident fiscal
policy as well as education and health insurance reforms
require bold agreements without which rapid development would
be more and more difficult.
If we firmly continue reforms
and prefer long-term guidance to momentous problem solving in
economy, we will maintain sustainable economic growth.
Determined co-operation-oriented work for the benefit of the
society combined with international experience provides a
feeling of security that development in Estonia will continue
and results of continuous economic reforms will become
rooted.
Vahur Kraft
President of Eesti Pank
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